I found the unemployment rate vs recession timing graph the most insightful. I never understood the relationship, and this cleared it up for me: unemployment is a lagging, not leading indicator.
Appreciate your insight .. pity i can't get down to Bedford next weekend .. enjoy your time in the UK and maybe you could help your UK followers navigate our financial climate .. are we similar to the US ? or do we have our own unique problems ? regards Philip
Great article James. I’ve been hearing this “full employment” argument for some time now and its nice to finally see a chart that clearly identifies its relationship with recessions. It seems to be a lag indicator and its at its best immediately prior to a recession hitting.
I work in the medical device industry, typically not an industry that has massive layoffs unless in a serious recession. The last of which I remember was 2008. Yes, my company has had layoffs throughout the years, but mostly bottom feeders, waste reduction. Nothing meaningful. However, next week, we are bracing for 6,000-8,000 employees (of 100k pool) at my company. I’ve been there 13 years and this will be one hell of a bloodbath. Sure feels like bananas to me!
Good summary and I loved the charts in this one. Really liked the graphic relating unemployment to recessionary periods. Seems like a pretty simple and strong correlation and just makes me scratch my head as to why the Fed talks about this data point so much in their guidance when clearly it’s such a lagging indicator. 🤨
Maybe that’s why they tend to overshoot and then habitually over correct to solve the problem?
But we shouldn’t worry because they are way smarter than all of us and it would never be worth using simple common sense when you can just use a bunch of sophisticated sounding acronyms to explain things. Just makes you wonder.....
James -
What are your thoughts on how Bitcoin vs Gold will perform compared to each other in the upcoming recession?
I found the unemployment rate vs recession timing graph the most insightful. I never understood the relationship, and this cleared it up for me: unemployment is a lagging, not leading indicator.
Appreciate your insight .. pity i can't get down to Bedford next weekend .. enjoy your time in the UK and maybe you could help your UK followers navigate our financial climate .. are we similar to the US ? or do we have our own unique problems ? regards Philip
Hi James. Happy Easter and thanks for another great article! If you are continuing to add to your gold holdings, what are you using as a buy signal?
Great article James. I’ve been hearing this “full employment” argument for some time now and its nice to finally see a chart that clearly identifies its relationship with recessions. It seems to be a lag indicator and its at its best immediately prior to a recession hitting.
Hi James,
What about 401K plans from employer..Do you have any suggestion how to invest there? There is not a lot of choice in these plans. Thank you.
I work in the medical device industry, typically not an industry that has massive layoffs unless in a serious recession. The last of which I remember was 2008. Yes, my company has had layoffs throughout the years, but mostly bottom feeders, waste reduction. Nothing meaningful. However, next week, we are bracing for 6,000-8,000 employees (of 100k pool) at my company. I’ve been there 13 years and this will be one hell of a bloodbath. Sure feels like bananas to me!
Good summary and I loved the charts in this one. Really liked the graphic relating unemployment to recessionary periods. Seems like a pretty simple and strong correlation and just makes me scratch my head as to why the Fed talks about this data point so much in their guidance when clearly it’s such a lagging indicator. 🤨
Maybe that’s why they tend to overshoot and then habitually over correct to solve the problem?
But we shouldn’t worry because they are way smarter than all of us and it would never be worth using simple common sense when you can just use a bunch of sophisticated sounding acronyms to explain things. Just makes you wonder.....
James -
What are your thoughts on how Bitcoin vs Gold will perform compared to each other in the upcoming recession?
Clean,short and to the point, thanks James
Hi James. What are your feelings on owning commodities right now?